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Signal methodology

A crypto reference

Crypto assets with a valid return in the current market snapshot form the reference, including stablecoins. Changing your watchlist or filtering the map does not change this reference. At least 20 valid observations are required.

The optional screened reference excludes identified stablecoins and tokenized assets from statistics and signals. Its dated list is partial: an unlisted asset is not classified. Prices remain visible. Compare reference composition before interpreting a changed score; neither reference is a forecast.

Snapshot context

The market median is the middle return of the usable reference, not a market-cap-weighted index. Breadth counts rising, unchanged and falling assets over the selected period, with equal weight per asset. The default reference includes stablecoins and correlated tokens; neither reference is a sector-matched comparison.

Relative comparisons

Against BTC: 100 × ((100 + asset return %) / (100 + BTC return %) - 1), for the same period. Against the median: asset return minus median return, in percentage points. These comparisons add context, not independent confirmations or predictions.

Missing or invalid BTC returns suppress the relative comparison, as does a BTC return of -100%. Supplied observation times must be current and at most one minute apart. Collection-only snapshots remain explicitly labelled: synchronisation cannot be verified without observation times.

Anomalies

A return more than two population standard deviations above or below the reference mean is highlighted. A 24-hour volume-to-market-cap ratio is also highlighted above two standard deviations, after a log10(1 + 1000 × ratio) transformation.

Divergences

On the 24H view only, the price and activity z-scores are compared. An absolute difference above 1.2 is highlighted. Activity uses 24-hour volume; it is not compared with other return periods. These are heuristic thresholds, not probabilities or evidence of accumulation.

Sources and limits

Market observations come from CoinGecko. LunarCrush readings are separate context and do not determine these signals. FRED observations have their own publication dates. Extreme outliers and the composition of the reference can affect the result. This compares different assets at one moment, not an asset against its own history.

The Demo profile requires a successful collection within 7 minutes and a dated price within 10 minutes. Failed or undated data is unavailable. The legacy one-minute profile keeps its 3-minute limit. A zero signal count does not guarantee low risk.

Invalid supplied timestamps are excluded. Observation coverage describes data availability, not a confidence score. No signal history or visitor tracking is stored. Only favorites, display preferences and language are saved locally in your browser.